Let’s finish this once and for all.
You do a great job summarizing the dual-mandate (seriously), however I still fail to see how they can influence unemployment, as this really is a function of the free market. Yes, they can encourage lending by lowering the interest rates to zero (or less), but this does not create organic growth. This kind of dangerous lending can lead to seriously over-manufactured growth, which creates bubbles and ultimately recessions depending on the rate of default. In fact, this sort of thing may have happened recently in the form of mortgages, perhaps you heard about it?
Mutualizing European debt and financial Armageddon are not the only two options on the table (you’re really starting to sound like a professional pundit though, so congrats). You’re forgetting the very simple, very boring middle-of-the-road option of bailing out smaller country’s with short-term payback programs – no real unification and no Armageddon. This will spur a raging amount of mediocre growth over the next 5 – 10 years, after which will be coined “The Lost Decade – European Edition”. I suppose the argument can be made that it’ll bring Europe closer together in the short-term, as Germany will want to make sure as hell Greece and Italy and Spain pay back the loans, but they will in no way be set for the long term.
The reason for my prediction is fairly simple, and that is that there is not enough at stake for unification to take place. Meaning, too many people will make more money in the short term if unification does not happen and too many lifestyle’s will be disrupted if unification were to happen. For instance, Germany would want to impose certain tax laws that other country’s (*cough*Greece*cough*) wouldn’t/couldn’t enforce if they wanted to, and Germany would not be willing to take on the debt burden without said reassurances. Like I’ve said from the beginning, the vast differences in ideology will prevent a European unification. They may get close, I could see them bundling the debt of the weaker country’s like Italy, Spain and Greece – but what happens when you pile shit with more shit? You’re just left with a bigger pile of shit.
I think we’ve exhausted the topic thoroughly at this point, spinning our wheels and re-iterating the same points over and over. We both clearly agree that a unified Europe is better for the world, we just disagree on the timing and the ramifications it will take for Europe to take the steps into unification. This will almost certainly be an interesting read one year from now (maybe even one month as you suggested), as who knows what the ensuing months have in store for us. Ultimately though, the most timeless aspect of these arguments have no doubt been the references to the wonderful movies of our generation, so let’s end it all with a classic…